Apocalypse When?: Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive (Springer Praxis Books / Popular Science) Review

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(More customer reviews)Full disclosure: I used to work for the author.
He is methodical and his logic is solid and he predicts the end of civilization is near. So I spent some time trying to refute this book and I can't. The author has presented this line of reasoning in lectures and found that no one takes his prediction with the weight that it deserves. He faults the audience members, but I suspect most people following this line of argument go into denial. It is natural when faced with the news of our demise to go into denial or try to fight the reasoning behind this.
It is like the behavior of people in a company that is failing and nearing its end. I've seen this a few times where many hold on to the notion that it will turn around, and they ride it all the way into the ground.
There is in the book a few hints of what could save us, but each is given little chance of succeeding. The optimist in me will fight for one of these. The scientist in me will continue to seek a flaw in Well's reasoning. The denial in me will try to push it out of my mind.

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This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author’s predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells’ carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of not only natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets, but perhaps more surprisingly from man-made hazards arising from genetic engineering or robotics.Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace’s principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer’s random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory.The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and “reference class" to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula.

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Serious and Violent Juvenile Offenders: Risk Factors and Successful Interventions Review

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(More customer reviews)The text outlines a concept of risk and protective factors along the path of life, which are shown to either contribute or protect individuals and communities from Juvenile Offending.
The book is a must for those wanting to consider proven and efficient alterntives to the 'get tough approach', but don't fear it isn't the soft social worker approach either. It's based on the theory of Developemental Crime Prevention and looks at a combination of sanctions, interventions and community actions which can reduce juvenile and later adult offending.
A must for those with an interst in Crime Prevention !

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Detailed and comprehensive, this volume presents authoritative discussions by leading scholars on issues surrounding serious and violent juvenile offenders. This population is responsible for a disproportionate percentage of all crime and poses the greatest challenge to juvenile justice policymakers. This volume integrates knowledge about risk and protective prevention programs, so that conclusions from each area can inform the other.

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Forecasting in Business and Economics, Second Edition (Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics) Review

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(More customer reviews)This is a great book, if you are looking for a graduate level experience -- but beware. There are 2 texts from 1986 with the same ISBN number. The first is a Hardcover book by Granger and is an undergraduate text. The second is a Paperback book by Granger and Newbold and is the real deal for grad students interested in time series analysis. So if you want this book, be sure to order the Paperback by Newbold. Good Luck! I received the Hardback copy twice in error before receiving the great paperback.

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This thoroughly revised second edition of an upper-level undergraduate/graduate text describes many major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This is the only time series book to concentrate on the forecasting of economic data and to cover such a broad range of topics. Key Features* Gives a complete description, with applications, of the Box-Jenkins single series modeling techniques* Extends the Box-Jenkins techniques to multivariate cases* Compares forecasts from purely statistical and econometric models* Pays careful attention to such problems as how to evaluate and compare forecasts* Covers nonstationary and nonlinear models, co-integration and error-correction models

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A Dynamic Cascade Model of the Development of Substance - Use Onset (Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development) Review

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(More customer reviews)Although much of psychology involves a rather univariate approach, every once in a while a publication comes along that focuses on a multivariate explanation that recognizes the complexity and richness of human development. This is one such publication. Focusing on early substance abuse, the authors compare such development to a stream "meandering through a meadow", joined by other streams and gathering momentum, growing into a "rushing rapid that cascades over rocks", but with various deflections from rocks along the way (the "dynamic cascade"). The primary "streams" include biological factors, social ecology, early parenting, early peer relations, adolescent parenting, and adolescent peer relations, and although the "streams" individually result in modest effects, in combination they are very predictive, early influences are primary, adaptation is a continuous but a reciprocal transactional process, sensitive periods are important, and there are always opportunities for change. Although at times the statistical analysis of a significant amount of data can be a bit tedious, I was very impressed with this book, and think it represents a significant step forward in the understanding and potential prevention of early onset substance use. I recommend it highly!

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The book offers an extensive exploration of the childhood factors that can lead to substance abuse.
Puts forward a dynamic cascade model of the development of adolescent substance-use onset
Model is based on broad sampling of children from prekindergarten through to Grade 12
The results offer practical suggestions for interventions, public policies, and economics of substance-use and future inquiry

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Principles of Therapeutic Change that Work (Oxford Series in Clinical Psychology) Review

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(More customer reviews)I don't know if this applies as a full review or just a few quick notes/thoughts.
I bought this book recently because I am interested in optimizing my own therapeutic effectiveness, and thought the book would provide some good techniques or principles that would guide my time with clients.
Unfortunately, the book is heavy in theory and written by persons who are obviously good at research and statistics, but not good at communicating their findings in a way that can be applied.
I'm not saying not to buy the book, but expect to do a lot of work getting through this book, and even more translating it from Professional Journal speak into something with utility for your practice.
Hope this helps!
Final Note: If you're interested in learning telephone or online counseling, this book is really good: The Therapist's Clinical Guide to Online Counseling and Telephone Counseling: The Definitive Training Guide for Clinical Practice

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This book presents the findings of a Joint Presidential Task Force of the Society of Clinical Psychology (Division 12 of APA) and of the North American Society for Psychotherapy Research.This task force was charged with integrating two previous task force findings which addressed, respectively, Treatments That Work (Division 12, APA), and Relationships That Work (Division 29, APA).This book transcends particular models of psychotherapy and treatment techniques to define treatments in terms of cross-cutting principles of therapeutic change.It also integrates relationship and participant factors with treatment techniques and procedures, giving special attention to the empirical grounding of multiple contributors to change.The result is a series of over 60 principles for applying treatments to four problem areas: depression, anxiety disorders, personality disorders, and substance abuse disorders. This book explains both principles that are common to many problem areas and those that are specific to different populations in a format that is designed to help the clinician optimize treatment planning.

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Beyond Cholesterol: 7 Life-Saving Heart Disease Tests That Your Doctor May Not Give You (Lynn Sonberg Books) Review

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(More customer reviews)What I think is particularly significant about this book is its emphasis on the role of inflammation in heart disease and all the markers of inflammation that can be tested for. A focus on cholesterol is not enough.
The cause of inflammation should also be emphasized and I would have suggested a bigger emphasis on the role of pathogens in inflammation, in particular, bacteria, such as Chlamydiae pneumoniae and Mycoplasma.
These and other pathogens may also partly explain why so many people have trouble exercising and losing weight. As they age, they acquire more pathogens that cause health problems that accumulate over time. This may be associated with many diseases of aging. The Autoimmunity Research Foundation is just one group looking into this.
Joyce Waterhouse, PhD

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The latest scientific research has discovered that cholesterol levels are not the definitive indicator of heart disease risk. In fact, there are seven tests that can reveal much about the state of the heart and cardiovascular system. Dr. Torelli explains what the tests are, what they reveal, and how to get them. He also includes information on womens heart health (heart disease is the leading cause of death for American women; ten percent of women ages 45 to 64 are living with heart disease), and dietary and lifestyle factors that impact heart disease.Beyond Cholesterol includes information on:C-Reactive Protein Fibrinogen Homocysteine Fasting Insulin Ferritin Lipoprotein(a) Calcium Heart ScanCholesterol tests are valuable but they dont tell the whole story. This book explains how to get the most important information needed to stop heart disease in its tracks.

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Evidence-Based Diagnosis (Practical Guides to Biostatistics and Epidemiology) Review

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(More customer reviews)I'm always surprised and a little dismayed by the relative lack of evidence that seems to go in to so much clinical decision-making, especially when it comes to diagnostic tests. Its therefore gratifying to see Evidence-Based Diagnosis make the case for a more thoughtful and empirically grounded approach to treatment. This book is wonderfully clear and simple, presenting sophisticated statistical ideas with just enough math and no more. Clinicians and researchers should find the discussion of how to use data for decisions both engaging and useful - Josh Angrist

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Evidence-Based Diagnosis is a textbook about diagnostic, screening, and prognostic tests in clinical medicine. The authors' approach is based on many years of experience teaching physicians in a clinical research training program. Although requiring only a minimum of mathematics knowledge, the quantitative discussions in this book are deeper and more rigorous than in most introductory texts. The book includes numerous worked examples and 60 problems (with answers) based on real clinical situations and journal articles. The book will be helpful and accessible to anyone seeking to select, develop, or market medical tests. Topics covered include: the diagnostic process, test reliability and accuracy, likelihood ratios, and ROC curves, testing and treatment thresholds, critical appraisal of studies of diagnostic, screening and prognostic tests, test independence and methods of combining tests, quantifying treatment benefits using randomized trials and observational studies, Bayesian interpretation of P values and confidence intervals and challenges for evidence-based diagnosis and evidence-based medicine.

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Analysis of Customer Satisfaction Data Review

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(More customer reviews)This book is for advanced practitioners in marketing, contact center/customer care and other business and technical domains that need to gather and quantitatively analyze customer satisfaction data. The focus is customer satisfaction for services more than products, but it can be used effectively in either scenario.
The introduction covers prior work in the field and lays the groundwork for subsequent chapters that cover instrumentation, data preparation, an analysis framework and models.
The key strengths of this book are the framework, which is highly structured, the models and exploratory data analysis. I liked the discussion of regression analysis problems, and the chapters on causal modeling and interdependency models. I also liked the fact that this book is short, crammed with information and techniques, and does not lose its focus. You will need to brush up on your math skills because while this book reads well and is fast-paced, it is also detailed and is heavy with quantitative methods. If I had to recommend one book on customer satisfaction data analysis this is it.

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Fundamentals of Modern Statistical Methods: Substantially Improving Power and Accuracy Review

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(More customer reviews)This is a marvelous introductory statistics book. In the first five chapters Wilcox presents the classical statistical methods with simplicity and great care. Emphasis is properly placed on the assumptions of the methods and the fact that many times important assumptions are violated in practice. This is all done in the first five chapters. Then in chapters 6 - 12 he provides alternative modern methods that can work better than the classical ones when the assumptions fail.
Chapter 6 is on bootstrap. Chapter 8 covers robust measures of location. Chapter 9 covers statistical inference based on robust measures of location. Chapter 10 deals with nonparametric and robust measures of association. Chapter 11 covers robust estimates of location and Chapter 12 "Alternative Strategies" includes rank test, permutation tests and multiple comparison issues.
At the beginning of Wilcox's book there are three precious quotes that you should appreciate. 1. "If at first the idea is not absurd, then there is not hope for it" Albert Einstein. 2. "Everyone believes in the [normal] law of errors, the experimenters because they think it is a mathematical theorem, the mathematicians because they think it is an experimental fact." Henri Poincare. 3. "Each generation that discovers something from its experience must pass that on, but it must pass that on with a delicate balance of respect and disrespect, so that the race ... does not inflict its errors too rigidly on its youth, but it does pass on the accumulated wisdom plus the wisdom that it may not be wisdom." Richard Feynman.
These quotes were well chosen to fit the theme of the book and represent the wisdom of three great men from the 19th and 20th Centuries.

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Conventional statistical methods have a very serious flaw. They routinely miss differences among groups or associations among variables that are detected by more modern techniques - even under very small departures from normality. Hundreds of journal articles have described the reasons standard techniques can be unsatisfactory, but simple, intuitive explanations are generally unavailable. Improved methods have been derived, but they are far from obvious or intuitive based on the training most researchers receive. Situations arise where even highly nonsignificant results become significant when analyzed with more modern methods. Without assuming any prior training in statistics, Part I of this book describes basic statistical principles from a point of view that makes their shortcomings intuitive and easy to understand. The emphasis is on verbal and graphical descriptions of concepts. Part II describes modern methods that address the problems covered in Part I. Using data from actual studies, many examples are included to illustrate the practical problems with conventional procedures and how more modern methods can make a substantial difference in the conclusions reached in many areas of statistical research.Rand Wilcox is a professor of psychology at the University of Southern California. He is a fellow of the Royal Statistical Society and the American Psychological Society. Dr. Wilcox currently serves as an associate editor of Computational Statistics & Data Analysis and Psychometrika. He has published over 165 articles in a wide range of statistical journals and he is the author of three other books on statistics.|"The volume is a jewel of direct explanations and information necessary for a good understanding of analysis of data, aimed at ordinary researchers who must try to present reasonable interpretable accounts of their data or judge when to abandon a particular strategy..."|- Perceptual and Motor Skills, 2002

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Sex Differences in Antisocial Behaviour: Conduct Disorder, Delinquency, and Violence in the Dunedin Longitudinal Study (Cambridge Studies in Criminology) (English and English Edition) Review

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(More customer reviews)This is a well written, detailed book that covers gender differences in the course of antisocial behavior from early childhood to early adulthood. It also does an excellent job of examining whether there are gender differences in the predictors of antisocial behavior, as well as the consequences of antisocial behavior. I routinely use this book for a "Women and Crime" class I teach, instead of using feminist grounded books. This book provides an objective view of gender and antisocial behavior, rather than the traditional subjective/ideological perspective you find in other books on gender and antisocial behavior. This is definately a must read for anyone who is interested in gender and antisocial behavior.

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Why are females rarely antisocial and males antisocial so often? This is one of the key questions addressed in a fresh approach to sex differences in the causes, course and consequences of antisocial behavior. A multidisciplinary team of authors present all-new findings from the landmark Dunedin Longitudinal Study and also provide new insights into such topics as the importance of puberty, diagnostic issues in psychiatry, the problem of domestic violence and the intergenerational transmission of antisocial behavior.

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A First Course in Structural Equation Modeling Review

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(More customer reviews)This book does a good job of explaining the basic concepts involved in SEM, path analysis, and CFA in easy to understand terms. Also, it lays out syntax and output for running popular SEM programs, such as LISREL, EQS, and Mplus. This book is perfect for the person who is trying to learn SEM on their own. I think it gives you enough to be able to know how to run a SEM, but it isn't enough to really make you a pro at it.

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In this book, authors Tenko Raykov and George A. Marcoulides introduce students to the basics of structural equation modeling (SEM) through a conceptual, nonmathematical approach. For ease of understanding, the few mathematical formulas presented are used in a conceptual or illustrative nature, rather than a computational one. Featuring examples from EQS, LISREL, and Mplus, A First Course in Structural Equation Modeling is an excellent beginner's guide to learning how to set up input files to fit the most commonly used types of structural equation models with these programs. The basic ideas and methods for conducting SEM are independent of any particular software. Highlights of the second edition include:• review of latent change (growth) analysis models at an introductory level; •coverage of the popular Mplus program; •updated examples of LISREL and EQS; and •a CD that contains all of the text's LISREL, EQS, and Mplus examples.A First Course in Structural Equation Modeling is intended as an introductory book for students and researchers in psychology, education, business, medicine, and other applied social, behavioral, and health sciences with limited or no previous exposure to SEM. A prerequisite of basic statistics through regression analysis is recommended. The book frequently draws parallels between SEM and regression, making this prior knowledge helpful.

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Aging Well: Surprising Guideposts to a Happier Life from the Landmark Harvard Study of Adult Development Review

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(More customer reviews)While many individuals may find the reading is too classic textbook and dry for their liking, as one who has studied behavioural psychology, I found the book extremely mind-absorbing.
The book closely follows a study of 824 individuals from birth through to old age and shows us how we can prolong our years and health. While genetics do play a role, there is little we can do to change our genetic make-up. What we can do is change our habits and day-to-day way of living. Easier said than done, but a choice, from a health perspective, that may yeild benefits as the years slowly slip by. One may think that avoiding alcohol and smoking, eating a healthy diet, exercising and maintaining a healthy weight are old hat issues, but the author shows just how dramatically those things can and do affect our remaining years. He also shows how sharing a happy, loving relationship can enhance our feeling of well being. Continuing the education process can also increase our state of health by challenging our mind and keeping it active and alert.
Hopefully, younger, health conscious individuals will take avantage of reading this book in order to prevent many of the pitfalls we fall into as we age. Some of us wait until that magic middle-age crisis hits before we realize what we should have been doing years ago. However, it is never too late to change and many readers will find valuable information here that may make the aging years more fulfilling, healthy and enjoyable. A book, also highly recommended, is "The Wisdom of the Ego" by the same author.

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Assessing Risk in Sex Offenders: A Practitioner's Guide Review

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(More customer reviews)This book by Craig et al. is an important contribution to the systematic study on the recidivism risk among sexual offenders.
It brings the main methods developed to evaluate and manage these people whithin a clinical or forensic context.
Static and dynamic risk factors associated with recidivism are adequately reviewed and strenghts and weaknesses of the instruments are also pointed out.
This book is an ideal companion for professionals who treat these people. Certainly, readers will use it as a comprehensive reference text, a book for evaluating evidences, a tool to bring new perspectives to many cases, and as an aid in preparing for criminal trials.

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Assessing Risk in Sex Offenders: A Practitioner's Guide is a handy resource for forensic practitioners responsible for assessing an managing sexual offenders at risk of recidivism. It covers the risk factors associated with sexual recidivism, evaluates risk assessment approaches and offers guidance on how to conduct forensic evaluations.
Written by an expert author team, Assessing risk in Sex Offenders: A Practitioner's Guide examines: The characteristics of sexual offenders Methodological considerations in measuring predictive accuracy Static and dynamic factors Structured risk assessments Treatment of sexual offenders Policy and practices
Assessing Risk in Sex Offenders: A Practitioner's Guide is an essential resource for clinical and forensic psychologists, forensic psychiatrists, undergraduate and postgraduate students in forensic and clinical psychology, and prison and probation officers.

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Data Analysis with Microsoft Excel: Updated for Office 2007 (Book Only) Review

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(More customer reviews)Usefulness of this reference book depends on being able to download StatPlus and supporting files from the[...] website. These files are locked on the website and in order to access them you need to either: (1) open an account by validating you are a faculty member OR (2) have an access card. If you are not a faculty member or you don't have an access card, you will not be able to access the files on which much of this text relies. EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN BUYING THIS TEXT.

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This popular best-selling book shows students and professionals how to do data analysis with Microsoft? Excel. DATA ANALYSIS WITH MICROSOFT EXCEL teaches the fundamental concepts of statistics and how to use Microsoft Excel to solve the kind of data-intensive problems that arise in business and elsewhere. Even students with no previous experience using spreadsheets will find that this text?s step-by-step approach, extensive tutorials, and examples make it easy to learn how to use Excel for analyzing data. A downloadable StatPlus? add-in for Microsoft Excel, data sets for exercises, and interactive concept tutorials are available on the Book Companion Website.

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HLM 6: Hierarchical Linear and Nonlinear Modeling Review

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(More customer reviews)This book offers bare necessities to conduct analysis on your own. For those interested in approach on how to teach students to use and understand this concept, this book is not the happiest choice. Its textual style resembles more to a "users guide for technical appliance". Otherwise, useful in its intent.

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This book describes version 6 of the HLM computer program for multilevel analysis by Raudenbush, Bryk, & Congdon. It includes chapters on the conceptual and statistical background as well as chapters on how to work with the program.

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Analyzing Linguistic Data: A Practical Introduction to Statistics using R Review

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(More customer reviews)This book is very well organized, and has a wealth of information. That being said, it is not for absolute beginners. It assumes that you already know a little bit about statistics, R, and linguistics. You should have some basic knowledge of t-tests, ANOVA and the like before reading. You should also go through some of the R tutorials if you have not used R before. Once you have that basic knowledge, this book will really help you learn how to do some advanced statistical analyses of your linguistic data. There are many code samples, including some R packages which you can download.

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Statistical analysis is a useful skill for linguists and psycholinguists, allowing them to understand the quantitative structure of their data. This textbook provides a straightforward introduction to the statistical analysis of language. Designed for linguists with a non-mathematical background, it clearly introduces the basic principles and methods of statistical analysis, using 'R', the leading computational statistics programme. The reader is guided step-by-step through a range of real data sets, allowing them to analyse acoustic data, construct grammatical trees for a variety of languages, quantify register variation in corpus linguistics, and measure experimental data using state-of-the-art models. The visualization of data plays a key role, both in the initial stages of data exploration and later on when the reader is encouraged to criticize various models. Containing over 40 exercises with model answers, this book will be welcomed by all linguists wishing to learn more about working with and presenting quantitative data.

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Explanatory Item Response Models: A Generalized Linear and Nonlinear Approach (Statistics for Social and Behavioral Sciences) Review

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(More customer reviews)Excerpts of my review from Psychometrika are above. Unfortunately half the quotes really apply to the other book I was reviewing at the time, the title by Skrondal and Rabe-Hesketh (which is also a nice book, but rather different). Anyway, this book very much deserves a five star rating. It shows how many IRT models fit together as regression models in the generalized linear (or nonlinear) mixed model framework. SAS code is provided for nearly all models in the book. The breadth of talented authors assembled by the editors is substantial. This is an excellent book for "advanced" users of IRT or people who are proficient with GLMMs and want to use them as measurement models. It is not a "beginner's book" by any stretch of the imagination, but a very good title to own if you want to start doing projects with real data. In addition to the SAS code, one of the must useful features of the book is the fact that the authors keep to only a few datasets, which means you get a very intensive look at them. Clever!

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This book offers a way of thinking about psychometric models of the item-response type (IRT) as logistic mixed models. There are three clear advantages to this approach. First, one can see how the many different IRT models relate to one another, as they are built up from a common set of principles. Second, the user can formulate her or his models, selecting among these principles and modifying them according to one's modeling needs. Third, the approach is closely linked withthe possibilities of PROC NLMIXED from SAS, so that estimation is mostly not difficult.

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