Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction Review

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(More customer reviews)Jokes about weather predictions are as old as those predictions. But joking aside, the book shows gradual and steady improvements in predictive power. Unsurprisingly, some of this is driven by cheaper computing power. But the book really does not discuss that. Instead the advances are due to deeper reasons. Like improved modelling of wave dispersion from an initial event.
Examples in the text include a change in the choice of basis functions and the dimensionality of the modelling. Some of the discussion takes the reader right back to introductory linear algebra and the construction of orthogonal functions. This is done empirically in one chapter.
The narrative also looks further out, at climatology, as opposed to weather predictions. Here, the intersection with the initial thread is in the short term climate predictions, which in fact forms the main thrust of the book. Overall, the text is very encouraging. No limits are suggested to future improvements.

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This clear and accessible text describes the methods underlying short-term climate prediction at time scales of 2 weeks to a year.Although a difficult range to forecast accurately, there have been several important advances in the last ten years, most notably in understanding ocean-atmosphere interaction (El Nino for example), the release of global coverage data sets, and in prediction methods themselves.With an emphasis on the empirical approach, the text covers in detail empirical wave propagation, teleconnections, empirical orthogonal functions, and constructed analogue.It also provides a detailed description of nearly all methods used operationally in long-lead seasonal forecasts, with new examples and illustrations.The challenges of making a real time forecast are discussed, including protocol, format, and perceptions about users.Based where possible on global data sets, illustrations are not limited to the Northern Hemisphere, but include several examples from the Southern Hemisphere.

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