11/25/2011

The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes: Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist--How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives Review

The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes: Jim Berkland, Maverick Geologist--How His Quake Warnings Can Save Lives
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When I first saw this book's title and subtitle, thoughts of a new Alfred Wegener came to mind. I thought that, perhaps, this "maverick geologist" is really on to something. But it became clear to me after reading the first few pages that this book was not at all what I had expected. Instead of basing predictions on well-grounded science, some of the parameters used by this geologist tend to border on what many would call the paranormal. Nevertheless, I read on; perhaps his approach really works, I thought. After reading the book cover to cover, it is my opinion that if this geologist has indeed discovered a fairly reliable way of predicting earthquakes, then this book does not do him any favors - in fact it does the exact opposite. This book is really a jumble of topics related to earthquakes with no apparent logical progression. It contains a very brief mini-biography of the geologist (a couple of pages), several repetitive comments on his campaign to have his methods recognized by the scientific establishment, anecdotes from people who have experienced various earthquakes, many repetitive statements on certain earthquakes, discussions on animals being able to sense earthquakes before they happen, on people who claim that they can do the same, on clairvoyants and even on Nostradamus's predictions - all these peppered haphazardly throughout. What I believe the author should have done to truly promote this geologist and his methods is to be very objective and neutral; to subject his results to the scrutiny of the scientific method and very carefully analyze his predictions (and whether or not they pan out) using standard scientific and statistical methods. This would establish whether his predictions are indeed better than chance, and if so, by how much. But when the arguments presented are mainly one-sided and the scientific establishment is potrayed as, at best, being closed-mided, the author's agenda comes into question and so does the soundness of the subject matter being promoted. Although lacking in logical structure, the book's prose is clear and friendly. This book would likely be of some interest to those living in earthquake-prone areas, those with an interest in learning about earthquake descriptions and survivor experiences, those interested in the dos and don'ts regarding earthquakes and, of course, those interested in the methods used by some to predict earthquakes.

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This is the first book to document one geologist's uncanny ability to foretell earthquakes. Jim Berkland forecasted the Loma Prieta earthquake that rumbled through the San Francisco Bay Area, and he was right on the money.Berkland's theories are based on factors such as tides, moons, geyser activity, magnetic-field changes, and strange animal behavior (disoriented pets, lost cats and dogs)--many of which were involved in the great Indian Ocean quake-tsunami disaster on December 26, 2004. This fascinating read includes stories of earthquake survivors, a wealth of details about seismic activity in earthquake-prone regions around the world, tales of quake cover-ups, and future weather and quake predictions. Written in a warm and witty style, The Man Who Predicts Earthquakes is timely and informative.

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